Predicting the Weather

The story goes that a young Indian Chief having spent 2 years in a Business School decided to implement some of the principles he had learnt.

Planning for a harsh winter, he sent all the braves out to collect wood. As he watched them return laden with timber from the forest he decided to rely on more rigorous research. To comfirm his predictions, he phoned the local meteorological service.

“Tell me, what is the weather predictions this winter? Is it going to be a bad winter?”

“Yes” replied the forecaster ” it will be a bad one”

So the Chief told the braves that they didn’t have enough wood and sent them back into the forest again. They returned with more wood but once again the Chief had doubts and he called the forecaster to confirm.

“It is going to be a really severe winter” replied the forecaster.

The Chief look at the wood store, decided that more was required and the braves were dispatched back in to forest.

This time the Chief decided to ask the forecaster for more proof. “Are you sure it’s going to be a really severe winter”

“Look” said the forecaster “its definitely going to be the worst winter on record – the Indians are gathering wood like crazy!””

What signs are you relying on, to prepare for your future?
Who are your sources? Are you relying on multiple sources or relying from the same well that validates your bias?